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Methods, data and limitations
Moldova · 2026-10-08
19 climate indicators for 37 units and the national total; a 1991–2020 reference with homogeneous 2021–2025 comparisons. Water estimates cover April–September 2026; irrigation uses explicit scenario assumptions. Soil is a static spatial model. The composite risk index remains uncomputed.
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Available calculations
| Area | Open report |
|---|---|
| Climate and risk factors | Climate and risk factors |
| Water and irrigation | Water and irrigation |
| Crop water requirement scenarios | Calculate scenario |
| Land and crops | Land and crops |
Composite risk method: unadmitted proposal
This is not probability, insured loss, official status or a subsidy decision. Completeness, quality, spatial suitability and scientific validation are distinct.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| V | 0.5 × S + 0.5 × (1 − CA) |
| IRC | (H × E × V)^(1/3) |
| Classes, upper bound inclusive | [0;0.2], (0.2;0.4], (0.4;0.6], (0.6;0.8], (0.8;1] |
Hazard, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
H — climatic hazard; E — exposed areas; S — sensitivity; CA — adaptive capacity; V — vulnerability; IRC — composite risk index. CA is adaptive capacity. Invert only in V; irrigation only in CA. No artificial floor. Fixed bounds, indicator weights and matched geography require validation. Any missing component blocks risk; physical zero differs from normalized zero.
Indicator inventory
Climate indicators are calculated for each cell before intersection-area weighting over the territory. Territorial day counts and spell lengths are weighted means and may be fractional; they are not an identical number of days at every location. Coverage, period, source product and reference comparability are stated in the report. Missing data remain distinct from zero; these indicators are not a composite risk index.
| Indicator | Unit | Calculation and applicability |
|---|---|---|
| BNS_AREA · Sown area | ha | Published BNS series: 35 territories and the national total, within source coverage. Units and denominators are preserved. |
| BNS_YIELD · Published yield | q/ha (quintals) | Published BNS series: 35 territories and the national total, within source coverage. Units and denominators are preserved. |
| BNS_PRODUCTION · Production | q (quintals) | Published BNS series: 35 territories and the national total, within source coverage. Units and denominators are preserved. |
| YIELD_DELTA5 · Five-year difference | % | Published BNS series: 35 territories and the national total, within source coverage. Units and denominators are preserved. |
| YIELD_RESIDUAL_CV · Detrended variability | % | At least 10 consecutive years: linear trend and residual standard deviation relative to mean original yield. Descriptive, not a forecast. |
| PRECIP_TOTAL · Total precipitation | mm | Sum of daily precipitation over the selected period, in mm. This is a water depth, not the available volume in a river or irrigation source. |
| TEMP_MEAN · Mean temperature | °C | Arithmetic mean of daily mean temperatures over the selected period, in °C. It is not the daily maximum and does not by itself establish crop stress or damage. |
| HOT30 · Days with Tmax above 30 °C | days | Number of days with daily maximum temperature strictly above 30 °C. This threshold describes heat conditions, not the probability of yield loss. |
| HOT35 · Days with Tmax above 35 °C | days | Number of days with daily maximum temperature strictly above 35 °C. Damage also depends on the crop, growth stage and local conditions; it is not inferred from this count. |
| HEAT32_EXCESS · Heat excess above 32 °C | °C·day | Sum of daily maximum-temperature excess above 32 °C: Σ max(Tmax − 32, 0), in °C·day. This is a descriptive heat indicator, not an estimate of damage or hours of heat exposure. |
| FROST_SCREEN · Days with Tmin below 0 °C, 1 April–31 May | days | Number of days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C within the fixed 1 April–31 May window, using the source UTC calendar. This is a climatic frost indicator; it does not establish damage without crop and growth-stage information. |
| GDD10 · Growing degree days, base 10 °C, uncapped | °C·day | Growing degree-day sum with a 10 °C base: Σ max(Tmean − 10, 0), with no upper cap, in °C·day. This is a general thermal indicator; it does not automatically identify a crop growth stage. |
| CDD · Longest dry spell | days | Longest run of consecutive calendar days with precipitation below 1 mm/day within the selected period. Missing days break the run; this is not an official drought declaration. |
| RX5DAY · Maximum five-day precipitation | mm | Maximum precipitation total over five consecutive calendar days fully within the selected period, in mm. Windows with missing days are excluded; the value does not establish flooding or damage. |
| R95PTOT · Extreme rainfall | mm | Needs a wet-day definition, a 95th-percentile threshold from homogeneous reference data and independent handling of years within that reference. |
| SPI3 · SPI3 | standardized | The current series is seasonal. Needs complete months, at least 30 homogeneous years at each scale, distribution fitting and zero treatment; SPEI also needs homogeneous historical ET0. |
| SPEI3 · SPEI3 | standardized | The current series is seasonal. Needs complete months, at least 30 homogeneous years at each scale, distribution fitting and zero treatment; SPEI also needs homogeneous historical ET0. |
| SPEI6 · SPEI6 | standardized | The current series is seasonal. Needs complete months, at least 30 homogeneous years at each scale, distribution fitting and zero treatment; SPEI also needs homogeneous historical ET0. |
| CDI_SHARES · CDI category distribution | fraction | Obtain a dated JRC raster and valid mask for Moldova; assess the eastern-domain advisory. Aggregate class areas, not numeric code averages. |
| OFFICIAL_DROUGHT · Official drought status | category | Needs the competent authority’s dated record, geography and findings. Climate indicators do not replace that evidence. |
| SOIL_MOISTURE · Soil moisture | source unit | Needs a dated soil-moisture product, valid mask and units. SWI T40 is not a measurement at 40 cm; static SoilGrids is not current moisture. |
| CROP_EXPOSURE · Crop exposure | ha and fraction | Needs dated parcel boundaries or a cropland mask with non-overlapping classes, then intersection with the hazard. BNS area does not locate fields. |
| LIVESTOCK_EXPOSURE · Livestock exposure | head | Needs dated livestock counts and compatible geography, then climate-factor intersection; hectares cannot be converted to animal counts. |
| LAND_USE · Land use | ha and fraction | Needs dated parcel boundaries or a cropland mask with non-overlapping classes, then intersection with the hazard. BNS area does not locate fields. |
| SOC · Soil organic carbon | g/kg or% | SoilGrids 2.0 at 0–5 cm, native 250 m pixels and intersection areas. Valid coverage is shown; not a laboratory analysis or root-zone water store. |
| EROSION · Erosion | t/ha/year | Needs terrain/slope, rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, cover and management for a defined method; texture alone cannot produce t/ha/year. |
| IRRIGATED_EFFECTIVE · Effective irrigated area | fraction | Needs dated parcel records and the area actually irrigated during the selected season; installed equipment or design area does not establish irrigation. |
| INSURED_AREA · Insured area | fraction | Needs valid insurance contracts identifying period, crop, area and covered perils; eligible land is not automatically insured. |
| DIVERSITY · Diversity | dimensionless | The 36 BNS categories overlap. First admit a non-overlapping crop classification and compatible total, then apply a documented diversity index. |
| ET0 · Reference evapotranspiration | mm | Daily FAO56, 26 cells covering the country, April–September 2026. Radiation for 92 days per cell uses Eq50 with kRs=.16; .19 is a parameter sensitivity. |
| ETC · Crop evapotranspiration | mm | Explicit four-stage Kc, root depth, initial storage, rain infiltration, efficiency and area. Calculates ETc, net/gross requirement and m³; no assumed yield gain. |
| WATER_AVAILABLE · Available water | m³/period | Needs usable flow/volume for the selected period, permit limits, ecological flow, water quality and infrastructure capacity. P−ET0 is not available water volume. |
| LOSS_OBSERVED · Observed losses | ha;%;currency | Needs the competent authority’s dated record, geography and findings. Climate indicators do not replace that evidence. |
| PROGRAMME_PROGRESS · Programme progress | indicator-specific | Own monitoring works for the selected geography. Official completion requires confirmed actions and an approved denominator; the PNRA concept does not establish implementation. |
Retrospective validation
Arithmetic verification is not local agronomic validation. Loss forecasts require real outcomes, temporal and spatial holdouts and a baseline comparator. Climate aggregation uses cell/territory intersections; these are not field observations.
CDI: categories and unknown
No CDI raster is admitted. JRC30Sep2026 eastern-domain advisory requires an applicability assessment; Moldova-specific effects are unconfirmed. Categories and recovery are never averaged.
Glossary
Definitions for interpreting results.
| Area | Data, methods and limitations |
|---|---|
| Climate hazard | A physical event or trend capable of causing adverse effects. |
| Exposure | Presence of crops, livestock, people or assets where adverse effects may occur. |
| Sensitivity | The degree to which a system responds to climate effects. |
| Adaptive capacity | Ability to adjust, limit possible harm and respond to consequences. |
| Vulnerability | Predisposition to harm involving sensitivity and limited coping and adaptation capacity. |
| Risk | Potential adverse consequences of interacting hazard, exposure and vulnerability. |
| Uncertainty | Limits to knowledge about data, processes, parameters or results. |
| Coverage and completeness | Valid-data days or area relative to the intended period or territory, with an explicit denominator. |
| Precipitation (P) | Precipitation depth over the stated period, expressed in mm. |
| Climatic water balance (P−ET0) | Precipitation minus ET0 for the same period and spatial support. |
| Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) | Evapotranspiration of a standard grass surface without water limitation, calculated from weather conditions. |
| Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) | ETc = Kc × ET0 under standard conditions, using a crop- and stage-specific coefficient. |
| Net irrigation requirement | Water needed in the root zone after accounting for precipitation and soil-water storage. |
| Gross irrigation requirement | Net requirement divided by efficiency as a fraction, including losses within the stated system boundary. |
Capabilities and coverage
Moldova capability inventory as of 8 October 2026; each result retains its own coverage. Data readiness is not a risk score.
| Capability | Availability | Next step |
|---|---|---|
| Territorial profile | Available within stated scope | Check each result’s period and coverage. |
| Climate indicators | Available within stated scope | Inspect the series and valid area; this is not a loss probability. |
| Historical comparison | Partly available | Comparison is available for 2021–2025. For 2026 a homogeneous history from the same product is needed; the 1991–2020 MERRA2 reference remains visible separately. |
| Climatic water balance | Available within stated scope | Check days with estimated radiation before comparison. |
| Irrigation scenario | Available within stated scope | Enter Kc, initial storage, soil capacity, efficiency and area. |
| Water resource | Calculation not implemented | Dated flow or storage, water quality and water-use documents are needed. |
| Water allocation | Calculation not implemented | Network, capacity, supply and priorities are needed; allocation is not implemented. |
| Soil properties | Available within stated scope | The model describes 0–5 cm; root-zone use needs deeper layers and samples. |
| Land-cover changes | Calculation not implemented | Comparable scenes, masks and verified change examples are needed. |
| Vegetation and moisture | Calculation not implemented | Cloud-masked scenes and verified SWI dates and rights are needed. |
| Official drought monitoring | Calculation not implemented | A dated official bulletin is needed; climate indicators do not replace it. |
| Agricultural statistics | Available within stated scope | Compare compatible categories and territories; do not sum overlapping categories. |
| Measures and follow-up observations | Partly available | Measure records, areas and comparable before/after observations are needed. |
| Terrain and ecosystems | Calculation not implemented | Admitted terrain/protection layers and applicable local rules are needed. |
| Geodata for analysis | Calculation not implemented | A common result GIS export needs a schema, licenses and geometry checks. |
| Economic scenarios | Calculation not implemented | The Moldova calculator needs implementation and explicit price and cost inputs. |
| Forecast | Calculation not implemented | A forecast provider and validation against independent historical outcomes are needed. |
Quality and provenance
- Status
- Climate and water calculations are available; each report states its window and coverage.
- Operator: TF Intelligence Platform S.R.L.; group: TF HOLDING S.R.L.
- Independent platform; official-system mandate and scientific validation are unconfirmed.
- Retrieved on
- 2026-10-06T22:27:14.262271+00:00
- Independent platform; official-system mandate and scientific validation are unconfirmed.
Download report
All formats share one content model and identifier. File hashes are separate from the content hash.
Capability and coverage registry (JSON) · Soil model source catalog (JSON)
Data, methods and limitations
- Report identifier
fde614ddae68e3001dafb80ec449ac8658504a82511ff1ad055a2c5781d3b91e- content_sha256
fde614ddae68e3001dafb80ec449ac8658504a82511ff1ad055a2c5781d3b91e- Application source version
0ee0f069f5ac2b169d985f0e5a507eef670ee415- Method and template version
- information-register/1.0.0 · country-bulletin/1.6.9
- Dataset version
cb2b107b8179c110a4fe17b608251a678541f678c69b9964b668c352c821e9a5